My guess is that in 2022 we will see a consolidation of Kubernetes distributions. I suspect that folks will select one on the top five distributions and build on that. But I do agree with Janakiram MSV, in that we will see an open source Kubernetes distribution from Google and Microsoft in the new year.
In 2022, I expect Google and Microsoft to announce open source Kubernetes distributions based on their managed offerings — GKE and AKS. These distributions will be positioned as production-grade Kubernetes environments delivering the same capabilities as the managed services. Customers adopting these distributions will be able to switch to cloud-based or hybrid managed services easily. It helps them position their offerings as alternatives to EKS-D and EKS-A from AWS.
This would make it much easier switching from on-prem to cloud for those running the Google or Microsoft cloud.